June Golf Weather Impact:
Winning Streak Stops at 1 Month
Hoping to extend our winning streak to 2 months after very favorable May results, June delivered parity weather results to last year registering a 1% gain for the month at the national level vs. Year Ago (YA). The silver lining is that we didn't go backwards and the flat results improved the Year-to-Date (YtD) deficit by four points but it's still significantly below YA at -9% comparatively. Comparing June Golf Playable Hours (GPH) to the 10 year "norm" for the month nationally, it was basically in line with that value. In regional breadth for the YtD period, the unfavorability remains widely distributed with a favorable/unfavorable breadth ratio of 1:4 with 9 weather-favorable regions countered by 32 weather-unfavorable regions (remaining 4 regions are in the neutral zone of +/- 2% with all 45 Pellucid weather-based regions in season). Looking at weather impact performance by day-of-week for the YtD period, the deficit is slightly more in weekdays than weekends and, within weekends, the Saturday
weather has been quite different (results by day-of-week and the figures for weekday and weekend available to Pellucid subscribers). The year-end forecast changed marginally based on the June results and the reforecast for the balance of the year. Pellucid subscribers know what that number is and whether we'll gain back any of the lost weather ground in the remaining months of the year. If you'd like to join them in being in-the-know regarding those important details and having early-warning guidance, subscribe to the monthly Geographic Weather Impact report or our Cognilogic facility-level web-based information service by following the instructions and links at the end of this article.
Played Rounds data for May published by Golf Datatech was a "good news" story when looked at in isolation registering +5% for the month vs. YA. Factoring in weather however and looking at Utilization, those results simply followed the previously-reported favorable weather results producing flat Utilization for the month. For the YtD period, the favorable Utilization pattern continues to be driven by smaller declines in Played Rounds vs. Available Rounds declines. Beneath this national picture, there are winners and losers in both Played Rounds and Utilization Rates among the 61 key Markets (including Pellucid's designated Top 25 markets) and this next-level-detail of results is also available to Pellucid Publications members and Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "In June weather basically played to a draw and our up/down/sideways arrow map of the 45 regions didn't change materially with the exception that most of the YtD unfavorability figures improved in magnitude. We're seeing the continuance of the pattern at the regional level with east-of-the-Rockies regions showing GPH deficits while the Desert SW is seeing basically flat weather performance and the Pacific NW and California having slightly better weather years vs. '17. Looking at May YtD results for Utilization at the 61 markets level, as mentioned earlier, the silver lining to this cloud remains that Played Rounds aren't fully reflecting the magnitude of unfavorable weather across the majority of markets. This is illustrated in the favorable breadth of Utilization gainers which improved meaningfully to 10:1 (38 markets showing Utilization gains against 4 markets showing declines). Among Pellucid's Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, 18 are now showing Utilization gains with Detroit and Cleveland posting double-digit point gains in Utilization. Again, if you want to know which of the Top 25 Golf Markets posted Utilization gains, how much and what the dynamics are behind those gains, just go to our website and get on the Monthly Weather Impact subscription or sign up for Cognilogic (facility-level access via the web)."
A broader and more detailed scorecard of the monthly key industry metrics can be found in Pellucid’s free digital magazine, The Pellucid Perspective. To register to get the current and future editions, go to www.pellucidcorp.com/news/elist
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Intelligent, curious and courageous industry stakeholders wanting the detailed metrics and monthly updates on weather impact at the national, regional and market level as well as utilization and the full year forecast numbers have two subscription options:
For individual facility owner/operators who need facility-level history, current year results by month and day-of-week and full year forecast data, Pellucid/Edgehill’s self-serve, web-delivered, real-time weather impact service product, Cognilogic, is your answer. It’s available for $240 for the year-end report and unlimited annual access via the Cognilogic web portal or $120 for a single year-end report. For more information, contact Stuart Lindsay of Edgehill Golf Advisors (firstname.lastname@example.org
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