News

Last Update :11/5/2020

Oct OtR FULL ISSUE - Bets on '21 Anyone?

Bets on '21 Anyone?

There's no precedent to tell us what's next

Volume 19 Issue 10

As the rounds played positive surprises continue well into the Fall and the revenue figures close in on or surpass '20, the most frequent question I get today from the media and our clients now shifts to what we think will happen in '21. As Yogi Berra was famously quoted saying, "Predictions are hard, especially about the future." Back in April, I thought trying to project the upside/downside for this season would be thin on quantitative data support and historical patterns. In November I'm now slightly despondent that any projections on '21 will be basically on a wing and a prayer. Given however that few in the industry to date have dared to take that on and I still have clients wanting a professional opinion, I'm going to climb out on a shaky limb and hope it supports my weight.

 

In my opinion, '21's success, failure or lateral movement will be based on the following tenets which I'll flesh out, uncharacteristically, in opinion more than facts:

 

·    The contributing factors and consumers behind the '20 V-shaped recovery and resurgence will be important in the '21 projection. I'll discuss that understanding how much of '20 was due to existing golfers playing more, lapsed golfers returning to the game or new golfers taking up the sport will influence whether we sustain this level of rounds and revenue, fall back to the pre-COVID trajectory or land somewhere in between

 

·    As I've pointed out in various interviews and this publication previously, our fortune in '20 has been largely driven by the absence of preferred activities which previously competed for the discretionary time (particularly weekend) required for golf. The timing and breadth of the return of those activities will certainly shape the arc of rounds and revenue in '21, and likely into '22, at the current pace of controlling COVID

 

·    Finally, those in the golf course operations sector control a part of their destiny based on whether they recognized, captured and cultivated relationships in '20 or just extended a hearty (socially-distanced) handshake when golfers arrived and (virtually) slapped 'em on the back as they left and said "Come back soon y'all!" on their way out the door. I'll try to go lightly on this but we (continue to) suck at tracking and marketing to our consumers based on information that could be reasonably collected through virtually all of today's Point-of-Sale (PoS) systems

 

Interestingly, at the intersection of the above Stuart and I are somewhat bullish on the 1st half of the '21 season and less aligned and/or confident on what the 2nd half of '21 will provide. Again however, between us we don't have even a half dozen numbers to quantitatively support our professional opinion on this topic so we'll remind you to remember that "Free advice is generally worth what you paid for it." Just for fun, throw in a polarized and unsettled presidential election for good measure (which is hopefully decided, one way or the other, by the time you read this) and you've got yourself a good 'ol fashioned crap shoot. Here's how I read the tea leaves...

 

I'm officially declaring November a "free-for-all" issue so every single one of you receiving this will be provided the complete issue at no cost. It's my shameless end-of-year plug for the 20K+ of you who aren't current subscribers or Pellucid Publications Members (PPM) to get on board and give yourself an early Christmas present. To make it even more interesting, we'll do a 14 months for the price of 12, if you subscribe in November (OtR or PPM) your subscription won't renew until Jan '22. See the links below which will take you to the "subscribe" page for either of the promotional offerings and click away. For those not taking me up on the offer, I'll just assume that you either don't care for my writing style or you don't want reality-based insights on the quantitative and qualitative industry opportunities and issues (I won't take either of those personally):

Read More



[ More News ]


Join NGCOA Mid-Atlantic - Great Membership Benefits!

Summer Issue of Mid-Atlantic Golf Business Newsletter Joint with North Carolina GCOA - Click Here to Read!

Golf Property Analysts - Private Club Planning, Golf as it was meant to be, Is It Time to Sell?

A Consumer/Culture Based Approach to Private Club Planning

Transparency at Private Clubs

The Golf Pro Crisis & Its Impact on Clubs

Golf Property Analysts - Your Club's Tax Assessment

Hilda Allen - the source for golf course sales and advising owners

NGCOA Mid-Atlantic Annual Meeting Set for Nov. 2 at Independence GC in Richmond

Fairfax County Park Authority seeks Golf Course General Manager

Announcing Facility BMP Virtual Workshop and Prize Contest

Another Beautiful Listing by Hilda Allen Real Estate!

Just Listed by Hilda Allen - The Frog GC in Georgia, a Fazio Design

National Golf Day 2022 - Information and Registration

Mattaponi Springs Golf Club in Ruther Glen, VA Seeks General Manager

Larry's Interview on TurfNet Renovation report Podcast

Golf Leagues - A Lightspeed Guide to Growing Business

Register your course for Women's Golf Day - June 7th

Download the Pellucid Presentation at the Annual Meeting

Golf Property Analysts - Time to Sell?

New Listings and Recent Sales from Hilda Allen Real Estate

Hanover Golf Club sold to unidentified local buyer

Club Master Planning - A Market Based Approach

January Abstract OtR: '21 Sol Scorecard is 6 birdies, 2 pars!

Damon DeVito Named the 2021 Mid-Atlantic Golf Leader

Golf Course Acquisition Opportunity - Maryland - For Sale By Auction

Sep Weather, Aug Util; steady, solid results against strong "20 comps"

Employee Retention Tax Credit May Save You Thousands $

Glenwood Golf Course redevelopment gets planning commission approval

Google's New "Local" Ads Provide Big Advantages to Golf Courses

The Appraisal Journal - Valuation of Private Clubs for Tax Assessments

Morning Read and Sports Illustrated Announce Editorial Partnership

Partner News: Richard Mandell Architecture "Form and Function" Summer 2021

Women's Golf Day 2021 Sets New Global Records

Is it Time to Review Your Golf Property Tax Assessment?

 



Join Our Email List